“Connecting the dots” between news, demographics, market sentiment and money flows has repeatedly turned crises into high double‑digit returns while most bank‑advised Canadians stayed in fear and missed the rebound.

At Pathway2Wealth, we believe that understanding the intricate relationships between these elements is key to navigating the financial landscape.

Our approach empowers investors to seize opportunities that arise from uncertainty, transforming potential setbacks into pathways for growth.

By staying informed and adaptable, we guide our clients toward making strategic decisions that align with their long-term financial goals, ensuring they are not just participants in the market but active architects of their financial futures.

Can you make money using a strategy called “connecting the dots”?

What Is the “Connecting the Dots” Strategy?
I have been teaching clients how to use this strategy ever since I discovered it after the 2000 tech crash. When I researched why that crash happened, I noticed something strange: interest rates were still low. Based on the information I had at the time, a crash didn’t fit my Money Movement Strategy, so I wanted to understand what I had missed.

That’s when I came across an investment newsletter written by Tony Sagami — the only person I know who accurately predicted the tech market selloff.

He used a Nobel Prize–based mathematical formula that saved many investors from losing thousands of dollars. But the most valuable lesson I learned from him wasn’t the formula, it was his method of “connecting the dots.”

The Power of Connecting the Dots
Sagami explained how he made predictions by gathering news articles and current events, then piecing them together to form a clear picture. As he put it:
“Connecting world events and business headlines is just like connecting dots, the picture reveals itself.”

I quickly realized that mainstream media often tells only part of the story. Negative news sells advertising and boosts ratings, and political bias can distort the truth. In other words, the public often receives half the story and sometimes even less.

Connecting the dots, however, gives us a far more accurate picture of what is happening in the economy both now and in the future.

Where It All Began

Before I began writing publicly, my eight‑year average return prior to 1990 was 16.8%. This was during the first wave of Baby Boomers entering the market. Prior to 1982, only 4% of the public was invested in the stock market.

When Boomers began investing, they created the modern market as we know it and I rode that wave along with them.

In 1990, I began writing my first articles to reach all my clients at once with timely insights on the markets and how to invest their money. From that point forward, my business took off.

John Crow’s Fight Against Inflation
In October 1990, John Crow, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, had pushed interest rates to extremely high levels. Baby Boomers were spending aggressively, fueling inflation, and the only tool available to slow the economy was raising interest rates.

Crow succeeded — but at a cost.

With interest rates peaking at 13%, the economy was pushed into a recession. Once that happened, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada had no choice but to reverse course and begin lowering rates to pull the country out of the downturn.

Why Bonds Were About to Surge
I explained that when interest rates fall, bond values rise.
This combination of:
• Higher bond yields
• Capital appreciation
makes bond funds extremely attractive.

That’s why I said the Prudential Income Fund of Canada should perform very well over the next 12 to 18 months.

To illustrate the opportunity, I broke down the math:
If interest rates dropped by 1%:
• Bond values would rise 8%

If interest rates dropped by 2%:

• Bond values would rise 16%

So a bond currently yielding 11.5% would produce:

• 19.5% total return if rates dropped 1%
• 27.5% total return if rates dropped 2%

This was the foundation of the strategy — understanding how interest rates drive bond performance and positioning clients ahead of the move.

Equity Markets Were About to Rise

My headline in the Bruce County Marketplace Magazine for January 1993 was bold and clear:

“Equity Markets Are About to Rise.”

At the time, most investors — and most financial planners — were still chasing last year’s winners. Mutual funds are often sold based on past performance, and that is one of the biggest mistakes in the industry.

Why Chasing Last Year’s Winners Fails
The year before, bond funds had produced huge capital gains because interest rates had dropped sharply. But that situation was not going to repeat.
Historically, after the Bank of Canada aggressively cuts interest rates to stimulate the economy and end a recession, the economy eventually picks up — and when it does, interest rates rise again.

Rising rates hurt bond yields.
So anyone buying bond funds based on last year’s returns was walking straight into a trap.

I called it:
“A radar trap for inexperienced financial planners.”

Banks and insurance companies also promote last year’s winners to boost sales, which only adds to the problem.

What matters is not what a fund did last year —
but what it will do this year with your money.

 

Using the Money Movement Strategy

My Money Movement Strategy showed that interest rates were signaling a shift. Four of my six indicators pointed to the same conclusion:

The bear market was ending, and equity markets were ready to rise.

After quantifying each fund, I chose the Prudential Natural Resources Fund over five other equity options.

Why?

Because when the PQ was elected in Quebec, the Canadian dollar collapsed to 60 cents USD. That made our exports dramatically cheaper. And when an economy begins to recover, the first thing needed is raw materials — the foundation of sector rotation.

Canada is a resource‑driven country.
A low dollar meant a surge in exports.
Natural resources were about to boom.

Positioning for the Slingshot

We moved 100% of every client into the Prudential Natural Resources Fund in October 1992, exiting the bond funds we had been holding.

By January 1993:

• The fund gained 14.18%
• Added to the 20% earned since October 27, 1992
• Total gain: 34.18% in just three months

We were in a slingshot — my first one — and I didn’t yet understand how powerful it could become. But I knew we were in the right place.

Mexico had just increased its imports of Canadian resources to manufacture goods to sell back to us. Demand was accelerating.

The Dollar Stays Low — and the Rally Strengthens

I also warned that the Canadian dollar would remain low because PQ leader Jacques Parizeau was publicly celebrating English Canada’s rejection of Quebec’s demands. Foreign investors avoid countries facing potential separation, and that kept our dollar depressed.

A low dollar meant even more exports.
More exports meant more demand for resources.
And more demand meant the rally would continue.

The Slingshot Accelerates

By April 30, 1993:

• The fund was up 31%
• Combined with the earlier 20%, we were now up 51% in six months

I was beginning to understand the true power of a slingshot.

Most financial advisors tell clients to “stay invested for the long term,” but that approach cannot produce results like this. Why sit in a fund that is going down and wait two years for it to recover?

With Connecting the Dots, we didn’t wait — we moved.

By October 1993 — A Full 100% Return

The slingshot kept going.
Clients were thrilled.
And I was stunned by its strength.

By October 1993:

• The fund was up 89.8%
• Add the earlier 20%
• Total return: over 100%

We had doubled our money in one year.

Ten years of returns — in twelve months.

Was it luck?
Was it intelligent research?

I believe it was both.

Called to Toronto for Strategic Input

In December 1994, I was invited to Prudential’s head office in Toronto. They wanted feedback from their top agents on how to attract more of the massive investment dollars being generated by the Baby Boomer generation.

This was a pivotal moment — not just for Prudential, but for my entire career.

Identifying the Real Problem: Quebec’s Separation Threat

I explained that the ongoing Quebec separation crisis was affecting:

• The Canadian dollar
• Interest rates
• The stock market
• And investor confidence

Because all our Canadian‑based mutual funds were tied to domestic markets, they were being dragged down by the political uncertainty. Meanwhile, foreign markets — especially the U.S. — were thriving.

At that time:

• U.S. funds were earning around 40%
• International funds like Templeton Growth were earning 18%

I told them plainly:
If we had access to foreign funds, I wouldn’t have had to transfer client money out of mutual funds. But with no foreign options available, I had no choice.

Head Office Pushback — and My Response

Prudential’s executives pushed back. They argued that most of the money being invested was registered, and therefore “needed” to stay in Canadian funds.

That’s when I delivered the line that changed everything.

I said:

“Have you ever watched the movie Field of Dreams?
If you build it, they will come.”

Then I added:

“Build the funds — and I will bring the money.”

The Result: Two New Funds Are Born

That statement landed.
Prudential listened.

As a direct result of that meeting, they created:

• The American Equity Fund
• The Global Equity Fund

These two funds became the foundation for the next major phase of my clients’ success — and set the stage for the slingshots that followed.

Mastering the Art of Connecting the Dots

By October 1995, I had become highly skilled at connecting the dots and understanding the mechanics of slingshots — when they form, why they form, and how to position clients to benefit from them. This knowledge removed all fear of market corrections and eliminated emotional investing. It also became one of the most powerful wealth‑building strategies I use to this day.

A High‑Pressure Prediction
At the time, I played rugby with about 30 alpha males and hockey with another 16, plus 11 other teams in the league — more than 200 competitive, outspoken players. They all read my articles, and in town I was known as “the money man.”

If I made a bold prediction and got it wrong, the dressing‑room razzing would have been relentless. But I was so confident in what I saw developing that I had to say it.

The Quebec Referendum and the Setup for a Slingshot

Back then, 80% of RRSPs were still sitting in GICs or term deposits earning 8.5%, and I was eager to match the success we had achieved with our two new funds.

Quebec was about to hold its 1995 Referendum on whether it would separate from Canada. I wanted to be positioned at the very beginning of a slingshot if Quebec voted NO. I remembered how fast the slingshot took off in 1993, and the setup looked identical.

So in the October issue of the magazine, I wrote:

“If Quebec says NO, we will have a strong rally making 25% in three or four months.”

Positioning for the Slingshot

I began having clients sign transfer forms, moving their RRSPs out of the 8.5% GICs and into two funds I believed would react the fastest in a slingshot. I went 50/50 between:

1. Prudential Natural Resources Fund
• Entry level: 32.6%
• Previously over 120%, but clients avoided the drop because they were parked safely at 8.5%
• Needed to climb to 50% to hit my target

2. Prudential Precious Metals Fund
• Entry level: 18.5%
• Needed to reach 24% to hit my target

The Results — Far Beyond Expectations

I wasn’t just slightly off — I was nowhere close to underestimating the upside.
• Prudential Natural Resources Fund:
From 32.6% → 75.2%
• Prudential Precious Metals Fund:
From 18.5% → 76.8%

This became my second major slingshot, and once again, I underestimated the sheer force of the upward momentum — but I was in the right funds, at the right time, for the right reasons.

“Be Defensive in 1998”

When January arrived, my headline in the Bruce County Marketplace Magazine was clear and direct:
“Be defensive in 1998.”

We were applying the Connecting the Dots Strategy, which helps identify early warning signs and avoid major losses. Based on what we saw developing, we shifted into:

• Balanced Funds
• Dividend Funds
• Income Funds

This defensive positioning did exactly what it was designed to do — protect capital. But it also meant our returns for 1998 were modest, finishing at 5%.

A New Chapter in Toronto
Between 2000 and the end of 2006, I entered a major transition period. I moved my office to Toronto, and because I was no longer connected to the Bruce County Marketplace Magazine, I stopped recording my progress publicly. Working in Richmond Hill, it didn’t make sense to continue writing articles for a publication tied to a different region.

At the same time, I hadn’t yet developed strong computer skills, and my business was expanding rapidly. I was conducting seminars instead of writing, and during those seminars I predicted a major stock market crash similar to 1929, expected around 2010. I missed the timing by only 12 months — but I had made that prediction in the late 1990s, a full decade before it happened.

Pressure to Track Results Again
As my client base grew, many people encouraged me to start tracking performance again. By this point, I was becoming more comfortable with computers and improving communication with clients. Eventually, I listened — and in 2007, I resumed documenting results.

A Transformational Learning Period

Even though I wasn’t publishing articles, this period became one of the most important learning phases of my career.

In 1999, I became a day trader and turned $100,000 into $500,000 in one year. At the time, I thought I had mastered the markets. But the following year, I lost $250,000 because I “married my stock” — a painful but invaluable lesson in emotional investing.

Then came the collapse of Nortel, where I lost everything I had invested because I trusted an analyst from the Bank of Montreal. That experience changed my entire approach. I made a decision:

• No more individual stocks
• Only invest in what I truly understand — funds

Funds recover. Stocks don’t always. And with segregated funds, you get guarantees that stocks and mutual funds simply cannot offer.

As my strategies improved, my experience deepened, and my results strengthened. This period sharpened my instincts and elevated my understanding of market behaviour.

A Line Clients Never Forget

Many clients have told me over the years:

“I wish I had known you ten years ago.”

My answer is always the same:

“No, you don’t. I know more now.”

And it’s true — the lessons from 2000 to 2006 became the foundation for the accuracy, confidence, and performance that followed.

A Year That Didn’t Go as Predicted
In 2007, well‑known market analyst Harry Dent had forecasted a strong, prosperous year for investors. However, events unfolded very differently. A conflict between Israel and Lebanon was underway — a situation not unlike the geopolitical tensions we see in various regions today. Markets dislike uncertainty, and as the conflict dragged on, volatility increased. This instability continued right into August.

Fear of the Seasonal Correction
As we approached the traditional September/October correction window, concerns grew. This is the period when fund managers reassess their portfolios before the new investment season. They typically sell off underperformers and load up on stocks that have already risen — a practice known as window dressing.

Seeing the geopolitical tension and the seasonal risks, Harry Dent advised investors to exit the markets entirely.

A Different Perspective — Connecting the Dots
My own background gave me a different lens. Having served in the Canadian Armed Forces, and being something of a historian thanks to my extensive toy soldier collection, I paid close attention to the tactical situation on the ground.

I knew that Israeli tanks were positioned on the northern border of Lebanon near Syria, while Israeli forces had already advanced from the south. This indicated that the bulk of the fighting had already taken place. What remained was essentially a mop‑up operation before peace could be restored.

Based on this assessment, I expected the conflict to end within weeks. Once that happened, the uncertainty weighing on the markets would disappear — and a slingshot rebound would follow.

The Slingshot Arrives

That is exactly what occurred. The conflict ended, tensions eased, and the markets responded swiftly. Within three months, we gained 25%.

This was a textbook example of how the Connecting the Dots Strategy allows us to interpret real‑world events accurately rather than reacting emotionally or guessing. By understanding the broader context, we positioned ourselves correctly and captured the rebound while others stayed on the sidelines.

Predicting the Turning Point
The year 2009 became one of the most powerful slingshot recoveries I have seen in more than three decades — yet 84% of Canadians missed it. Early in the year, I predicted the exact date of the interest rate cuts: March 19th, 2009.

Many clients thought I had extraordinary foresight, but the truth was simple — that date aligned with the next scheduled Federal Reserve meeting, and they had already indicated that rate cuts were coming.

By connecting the dots, I explained that once the Fed made its move, a slingshot would follow. Not only would the markets recover their losses, but they would also surge to new highs at an accelerated pace.

A Massive Rate Cut and a Flood of Liquidity
What happened next exceeded even my expectations. The Federal Reserve didn’t just trim rates — they slashed them by a full 4%, bringing interest rates down to 0.5%. This injected enormous liquidity into the financial system and triggered one of the strongest market rebounds in modern history.

Despite this, most Canadians missed the opportunity. Poor advice, fear‑driven media coverage, and widespread negativity kept the majority of investors on the sidelines. It was truly an opportunity of a lifetime — and most people never saw it. Poor advice, fear‑driven media coverage, and widespread negativity kept the majority of investors on the sidelines. It was truly an opportunity of a lifetime — and most people never saw it.

Lessons from Warren Buffett
From studying Warren Buffett, I learned that every major market decline creates a chance to buy quality investments at bargain prices. This is when the wealthy “go fishing.” By combining that philosophy with my Demographics Strategy and Connecting the Dots, I could clearly identify which regions and sectors were positioned to lead the rebound.

Knowing a slingshot is coming is only half the equation — you must also know where to invest to capture the strongest gains.

Demographics Point to the BRIC Nations

Demographics pointed directly to the BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India, and China — which were poised for explosive growth as part of the global recovery.

Here were the final results for 2009:
• Brazil: 194%
• Russia: 179%
• South Korea: 139%
• India: 137.3%
• Mexico: 94%
• China: 89.5%

Our own portfolios delivered an exceptional 84% return. This figure was moderated because we held 25% in the U.S. (which returned 55%) and 25% in Canada (which returned 54%). Even with those allocations, the results were outstanding — and clients were extremely pleased.

2011 – Global Losses Driven by European Union Instability
The year 2011 was marked by widespread losses across global markets due to fears surrounding the stability of the European Union.

The crisis began when Greece defaulted on its loans, triggering concerns that the entire EU could unravel. Other countries — including Portugal, Italy, and Spain — were facing similar financial troubles, adding to the uncertainty.

With so much instability concentrated in one of the world’s largest economic blocs, markets reacted negatively. As a result, our portfolios finished the year down 15%.

2012 – A Rough Start Followed by a Turning Point
The beginning of 2012 looked much like the previous year. Markets continued to struggle, and we spent most of the year in negative territory. The European debt crisis still dominated headlines, and confidence remained low.

However, the turning point came when Germany and France stepped in to support Greece, preventing a collapse of the EU and restoring stability to the region. This intervention shifted market sentiment dramatically.

By the end of the year, we had recovered and closed up 12.5%.
This marked the beginning of a new slingshot, setting the stage for the strong gains that followed in subsequent years.

Holding Our Positions

Throughout 2014, we kept all our investments in the same funds. The strategy remained unchanged because the trends we were following continued to show strength, and both demographics and market momentum supported staying invested.

Japan’s Nikkei Continues Its Climb

When we first began investing in Japan two years earlier, the Nikkei Index was sitting around 8,000 points. By 2014, it was approaching 18,000 points, more than doubling over that period. This confirmed the demographic cycle we were tracking — Japan’s younger generation was finally stepping into the spending phase that had been missing for decades.

Health Care Maintains Strong Performance

At the same time, our Health Care funds continued their impressive growth, delivering 33.4% for the year. With aging populations in North America and around the world, demand for health‑related products and services showed no signs of slowing down.

Year-End Result

With both Japan and Health Care performing strongly, our total return for 2014 was 27.5%.

A Volatile Backdrop

The year 2016 marked the beginning of a turbulent period in the United States. The Presidential race became increasingly hostile, and as we all know, markets dislike uncertainty more than anything else.At the same time, Europe was dealing with Brexit, as Great Britain prepared to leave the European Union.

These two major events erased the positive returns that had been building earlier in the year.

Health Care Takes a Hit
Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton criticized President Obama’s health‑care plan during their campaigns. Clinton wanted to modify it, while Trump wanted to eliminate it entirely.

This political pressure caused the Health Care sector to drop sharply — falling 20% almost immediately.

I’ve always taught my clients that 90% of market corrections are driven by politics, and only 10% by speculation. Once the political issues causing the decline are resolved, markets typically rebound.

Warren Buffett has always emphasized removing emotion from investing — and this principle becomes even more powerful when you understand the political triggers behind market movements.

A Year of Waiting for the Slingshot
The uncertainty continued throughout the rest of the year, and we waited for the conditions that would trigger the next slingshot. Our Health Care funds finished the year down 16.5%, but I wasn’t concerned.

Over the previous three years, we had earned 124.49%, and I knew that long‑term demand for Health Care was not slowing down.

Fortunately, our other two funds posted positive returns, which helped offset the decline. This brought our overall result for 2016 to –9.5%.

December 3, 2018 – A Convergence of Market Stressors

By December 3rd, 2018, the markets were under pressure from four major issues, each contributing to volatility and investor anxiety.

1. Rapid Interest Rate Increases
Interest rates were rising too quickly, and President Trump openly criticized the Federal Reserve for failing to support the economy. Although the Fed eventually adjusted its stance, the damage to market sentiment had already been done.

2. Brexit Uncertainty
Brexit continued to create instability across the European Union. While this issue was significant, it was still minor compared to the two larger forces affecting the markets.

3. U.S. Midterm Elections
The midterm elections were the biggest factor. Political shifts created uncertainty, and markets dislike uncertainty more than anything else.

4. Escalating Tariffs on China
The final major issue was the looming increase in tariffs on China — rising from 10% to 25%. This escalation threatened global trade and corporate earnings, adding further downward pressure.

Strategic Response

To manage risk during this turbulent period, we shifted a portion of our holdings back into:

• Health Care funds
• Dividend funds

The goal was to diversify, reduce exposure to the most volatile sectors, and position ourselves to catch a potential “racehorse” — a fund that might surge once conditions stabilized.

Year-End Result
Despite our defensive positioning, the combined impact of these four issues resulted in a –3.88% return for 2018.

March 2020 – A Bold Prediction During Lockdowns

At the very beginning of the COVID‑19 lockdowns in March 2020, I made a prediction: the markets would recover everything they had lost — and quickly.

That forecast became reality. By April, we had regained 100% of the market’s decline, with a 29.5% rebound in that single month.

I had originally stated that the full recovery would take about two months, but in the end, it took only three weeks.

Media Panic vs. Connecting the Dots

During this period, mainstream media outlets were once again pushing fear, insisting we were entering a new financial crisis. Major banks and many financial “experts” echoed the same message.

The level of panic was so intense that I invested $1,000 to publish a full‑page article in the York Media Group magazines to counter the misinformation.

I wanted readers to understand that the second — and far more important — phase was coming:
the slingshot created by the massive stimulus packages required to offset the lockdowns.

The Slingshot Takes Off

Once the initial 29.5% recovery was complete, the Nasdaq surged an additional 41%. I compared this to the powerful slingshot of 2009, when we achieved an 84% return.

Many readers were on the verge of panic when markets collapsed in March, but the total rebound from bottom to top reached 70.5% — not quite 2009, but remarkably close.

For anyone wanting proof of the prediction I made at the time, the York Media Group still has copies of their April 2020 magazine, where the full article was published.

A Unique Opportunity with Canada Life.

During this same period, I identified a unique opportunity for clients through Canada Life. For the first time, the company introduced a Science and Technology Fund.

This was significant because the Nasdaq had averaged 21% annually over the previous seven years, and Canada Life advisors had long been frustrated that they lacked a comparable fund until November 2019.

This situation reminded me of the 1990s, when I worked at Prudential Insurance and recommended that they introduce U.S. and global funds so we could invest outside Canada during the Quebec separation crisis. That decision produced outstanding results — and I saw the same pattern emerging again

Results of the Canada Life Science & Technology Fund.

We recommended this new fund immediately, and it delivered exceptional performance:

• 52% return from November 2019 to December 2020
• This was 11% higher than the Nasdaq’s performance over the same period
• That 11% difference — created simply by “connecting the dots” can compound into a substantial advantage by retirement

And the momentum didn’t stop there. From November 2019 to November 2021, the fund produced a total return of 72%